USAF/NOAA: High Solar Activity Past 24 Hours, Solar Cycle 25 Ramped Up Faster Than Predicted

Solar Cycle 25 has ramped up much faster than scientists predicted producing more sunspots and eruptions than experts had forecast.

High Solar Activity Past 24 Hours

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Aug 2023. Below: Time-lapse of Solar Cycle 25 displays increasing activity on the Sun:

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was an X1 event observed on 07/2046Z from Region 3386 (N11W0*). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (10 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 07/1942Z.

Total IMF reached 13 nT at 07/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/0136Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 07/0245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be active to major storm levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (09 Aug), and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (10 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing the threshold on days one and two (08 Aug, 09 Aug).

Report August 8th, 2023

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2023 Aug 08 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels following an X1.5 flare (R3-Strong)
from old Region 3386 (N11, L=092) at 07/2046 UTC. This region also
produced an M2.4 flare (R1/Minor) at 07/0441 UTC, along with several
C-class flares, as it moved beyond the W limb. Region 3387 (N18W73,
Dsi/beta) added a couple more M-class flares (R1/Minor) during the
period. The first, an M1/Sf at 07/1626 UTC and the second, an M1.4
(R1/Minor) at 07/1951 UTC. Analysis of the first CME (associated with
the M2.4 flare) showed a likely miss, well ahead of the Sun-Earth line.
Analysis of the second and third CME, associated with the M1 flares and
subsequent X1 flare, will be accomplished as more imagery becomes
available. However, with the source region of the X flare being well
beyond the west limb, an Earth-directed CME is not anticipated.

Region 3387 continued to exhibit slight growth as it moved nearer to the
west limb. New Region 3396 (N19E06, Bxo/beta), Region 3397 (N18E47,
Hsx/alpha), and Region 3398 (S20W50, Cso/Beta) were all numbered this
period, with R3398 showing the most growth. The remaining regions were
stable and inactive.

.Forecast...
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) are likely with a slight chance
for an X-class flare (R3/Strong) on 08-09 Aug as Region 3386 moves
another day behind the limb, and Region 3387 begins to make its exit.
Activity is expected to decrease to a chance for M-class flares on 10
Aug as Region 3387 makes it beyond the western limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux decreased to near 1 pfu throughout
most the period, decreasing following the 05 Aug S1 (Minor) event. Near
the end of the period values began to unsteadily, but gradually increase
and reached 5 pfu following the X1 flare from Region 3386. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate.

.Forecast...
A S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm is expected on 08 Aug as the greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remains enhanced and the probability of
crossing the 10 pfu threshold has increased. Conditions are expected to
improve 09 Aug as proton flux is likely to decrease below thresholds,
however, a chance persists for S1 storms on 08-09 Aug due to the X1
flare activity from earlier in the period, as well as the potential
shock enhancements with multiple CMEs due to arrive on 08 Aug.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 08-10 Aug.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters began the period weakly enhanced as a minor
perturbation in the IMF was observed. Solar wind speeds initially
observed very little increase, ranging from 340 to 460 km/s, total
field increased to 10 nT, and Bz saw weak southward deflections to near
-9 nT. A more pronounced IMF enhancement, possibly associated with the
arrival of a CME from 04 Aug, began at around 07/1100 UTC with wind
speeds increasing to eventually reach 500, total field reached 14 nT,
and Bz deflecting to near -6 nT. Bz temporarily turned north before
dropping back to near -9 nT after 07/2000 UTC. Around 07/2215 UTC, solar
wind speed increased to speeds ~600 km/s, however, no additional
enhancements were observed in total IMF field strength.

.Forecast...
An enhanced solar wind environment is expected to prevail early on 08
Aug as influences from the 04 Aug CME persist, possibly mixed with weak
interaction from a positive polarity CH HSS as well. An additional
enhancement is expected by midday on 08 Aug due to the predicted arrival
of two CMEs from 05 Aug. Persistent, yet waning, CME influences are
likely by 09 Aug, with conditions slowly returning to near background
levels by 10 Aug (barring any impacts from the yet to be modeled CMEs
from today).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, but did reach
active levels in the last synoptic period.

.Forecast...
Active conditions are expected early on 08 Aug as CME effects from the 
04 Aug CME persist. G2 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 08 Aug due to
a potential glancing blow from the combined 05 Aug CMEs. Active
conditions are expected again on 09 Aug due to residual CME effects and
positive polarity CH HSS influences.

Solar Cycle 25 "Ramped Up Faster" Than Was Predicted: